Will Wisconsin’s Election Day Rain Hurt Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

Much of Wisconsin is expecting rain on Election Day, a forecast that could impact voter turnout and affect which presidential candidate wins the important battleground state.
Voters in the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are likely to decide who wins the White House. Recent polls show an extremely tight race between former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee, and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee.
And while more than 1.2 million ballots have already been cast in Wisconsin via early voting and mail-in ballots, NBC News reported, those waiting until Election Day on November 5 could be interrupted by rainy weather.
Though most thunderstorm forecasts show storms impacting states further south, Wisconsin is still expecting rain on Tuesday. If local storms do pop up, it could put voters waiting outside at risk, AccuWeather long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
“As storms approach some of the polling locations, it could force people to step out of line, where they may have been waiting for hours, and seek shelter,” he added.
Rain also is in the forecast for Michigan and the northwest corner of Pennsylvania, with North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada expecting dry weather on Election Day.
Poor weather has a history of impacting people hoping to cast their votes. In 2007, a study by the University of Georga, University of California, Merced and the University of Pittsburgh found that rainy weather deterred Democrats more than Republicans, though voter turnout dropped by 1 percent per each inch of rain. Snowfall also decreased voter turnout, though it was more likely to impact the elderly.
“In addition to its direct effect on voter turnout, we have shown that bad weather may affect electoral outcomes by significantly decreasing Democratic presidential vote share, to the benefit of Republicans,” the study found.
A more recent study in ScienceDirect in 2023 found that rainy weather more likely impacts young voters in their mid-20s or younger and decreased their voter turnout by nearly 6 percent.
Meanwhile, a 2018 study published in Sage Journals found that rainfall “decreases the Democratic candidate’s vote share by as much as 2.08% points, while it increases the Republican candidate’s vote share by 1.00% point.”
However, Republican strategist Mark Weaver of Ohio told Newsweek that Republican and Democratic voters feel dedicated to vote this election cycle, and it’s unlikely that either candidate will benefit from inclement weather in the swing states. Short of a disaster-level event, Weaver doubts rain will keep either party from voting on Tuesday.
Weaver said that Trump supporters feel an “exuberance and energy” for their candidate that is “unparalleled in modern American politics.”
Whereas those voters might be less likely to vote because of poor weather during other election cycles, that won’t be the case with Trump on the ticket this year, Weaver said.
“His supporters will move mountains to get to the polls because they see him as the solution to the problems facing America,” Weaver said.
Meanwhile, Weaver said Harris supporters are more motivated by their hate for Trump than their love for the vice president.
“Given how energetic both sides are this year, and given how common early voting has become, I don’t know that weather is going to be factor as much as it might be in a different year,” he said.
However, as for Election Day, Democratic strategist Carly Cooperman told Newsweek that inclement weather might benefit Harris at the polls.
“It’s possible that poor weather will make low propensity voters, those who don’t historically vote or those less engaged, stay home,” she said. “These are voters that Trump is courting and how he is building his support beyond his base, so this would impact Trump’s vote. Older voters may also be more inclined to stay home in bad weather but older voters are more split between Trump and Harris and many of these voters also vote early.”
Cooperman added: “Harris’ base of support tends to be among more habitual voter groups and thus she will be less impacted by bad weather.”
In 2020, Trump lost to President Joe Biden in Wisconsin by roughly 20,000 votes, though Trump won the state in 2016 against former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. As of Friday, polling aggregator site 538 showed Harris leading Trump, 48.2 percent to 47.4 percent, in Wisconsin.